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Bay Area Housing Market Shifts: Jobs Slow, Rates Ease, and Projects Push Ahead

Bay Area Housing Market Shifts: Jobs Slow, Rates Ease, and Projects Push Ahead

Cooling labor data points to Fed cuts, mortgage rates dip, and new housing breaks ground from SF to Los Altos.

Wilson Leung
September 05, 2025

BAYAREAOWN WEEKLY RECAP

Hello from the Bay Area — the region is buzzing with new housing projects, shifting market trends, fresh restaurant openings, and plenty of events to check out. Here’s your weekly digest to keep you in the loop. Let’s get to it.

DEVELOPMENTS & REAL ESTATE

Fisherman’s Wharf Plaza (San Francisco)
Alioto’s, the nearly century-old Wharf landmark, is being demolished later this year to make way for a $10M public plaza. The redesign will add picnic tables, string lights, food pop-ups, and a children’s play area, plus a new Inner Lagoon overlook along Al Scoma Way. Construction starts in early 2026, with the project aimed at boosting tourism and revitalizing the waterfront.

Distel Circle (Los Altos)
Los Altos just broke ground on its first major affordable housing development at 330 Distel Circle. The five-story project will deliver 90 units for households earning 30%–80% of AMI, with a mix of studios to three-bedrooms. Developed by EAH Housing and designed by KTGY Architects, it includes a courtyard, community room, and on-site services. Completion is slated for early 2027.

Clearview Business Park Redevelopment (San Mateo)
Harvest Properties and Stockbridge have purchased the former GoPro and Visa campus at 3000–3155 Clearview Way for $102M, with plans to transform the 22-acre site into 225 for-sale homes, 15% of which will be affordable. The low-density mix of townhomes and single-family homes reflects strong Peninsula demand for ownership housing while the office market continues to struggle with high vacancy.

Mission Rock Development (Mission Bay, SF)
Fieldwork Brewing will open its first San Francisco taproom at 1 China Basin Park, part of the 28-acre Mission Rock project co-owned by the Giants and Tishman Speyer. The new brewery joins Flour + Water Pizzeria and Arsicault Bakery as the neighborhood fills in with housing, offices, and park space across from Oracle Park.

MARKET TRENDS

Bay Area Job Market Cooling
The latest data shows Bay Area unemployment creeping up — San Francisco and San Mateo counties hit 4.4% and 4.3% in July, while Santa Clara County reached 4.9%. That’s still stronger than California overall at 5.5%, but marks a slowdown, especially as tech layoffs continue to ripple through the region.

Fed Rate Cuts Back on the Table
Nationally, August payrolls came in at just +22,000 with prior months revised down, pushing unemployment to 4.3%. The softest streak since 2020 has traders betting on at least one Fed cut in September, with the chance of another by December.

Mortgage Rates Easing
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dipped to roughly 6.5% as yields fall. If the Fed follows through with cuts, borrowing costs could drop further, improving affordability for Bay Area buyers. A 0.25% rate drop saves about $165 per month on a $1M loan.

Impact on Housing
Lower rates could draw more buyers off the sidelines this fall, giving sellers a small boost. But with job growth slowing and tech firms cautious on hiring, demand is expected to stay selective, with well-priced, move-in-ready homes seeing the most activity.

📩 Want to better understand what this means for the future of Bay Area housing? We’re here to help — send us a message at [email protected].

FOOD & DRINK

JUST OPENED IN THE BAY AREA

CRUEL DONUTS

Locals’ favorite crullers now have a new 25th Ave storefront with coffee, soft-serve, and taiyaki cones.

138 W 25th Ave, San Mateo

AISO VEGAN CAFE

100% plant-based café and bar in the former Lark space; casual plates and drinks in the heart of the Castro.

4068 18th St, San Francisco

THE YARD MILKSHAKE BAR

Shark Tank–featured dessert chain’s first California shop; grand-opening weekend Sept 5–7 with promos.

2433 Telegraph Ave, Berkeley

HOPSCOTCH CHICKEN

Chef Kyle Itani’s fried-chicken spot inside Epicurious Garden; counter-service comfort staples.

1511 Shattuck Ave, Berkeley

YOUTUBE

Ten Transformative Developments Reshaping San Francisco’s Future

San Francisco is going through a massive transformation in 2025. From new skyscrapers and waterfront communities to major transit projects and housing developments, these 10 game-changing projects are reshaping the city’s future. In this video I share what’s being built, why it matters, and what it could mean for buyers, sellers and anyone thinking about living or investing in San Francisco.

UPCOMING EVENTS

LOOKING FOR SOMETHING TO DO?

Alameda — Alameda Point Antiques Faire (Sep 7)
Massive outdoor antiques/vintage market on the former NAS runway.

Berkeley/Albany — Solano Avenue Stroll (Sep 14)
Mile-long street festival with food, music, and makers.

Foster City — SF International Dragon Boat Festival (Sep 20–21)
High-energy dragon boat races plus food, music, and family fun at the lagoon.

Los Gatos — Los Gatos Art & Wine Festival (Sep 20–21)
Juried art, live music, and regional wineries downtown.

Mill Valley — Mill Valley Fall Arts Festival (Sep 20–21)
Redwood-grove fine arts fair in Old Mill Park.

Mountain View — Mountain View Art & Wine Festival (Sep 6–7)
Castro Street takeover with arts, bites, and pours.

Newark — Newark Days (Sep 18–21)
Carnival rides, parade, and community fest.

Oakland — Oakland First Fridays (Sep 5); Friday Nights at OMCA (Sep 5, 12, 19, 26)
Art walk and night market vibes in Uptown + museum courtyard food trucks.

Pacifica — Fog Fest (Sep 27–28)
Coastal parade, live music, and local vendors on Palmetto Ave.

San Francisco —
Il Giro di SF (Sep 1) · Fort Mason Night Market (Sep 5) · Opera in the Park (Sep 7) · SF Symphony Gala (Sep 12) · Flower Piano (Sep 12–21) · Portola Music Festival (Sep 20–21) · Sunday Streets Western Addition (Sep 21) · Folsom Street Fair (Sep 28) · Golden Gate Park Band Sundays (Sep 7, 14, 21, 28)

San Jose — Luna Park Chalk Art Festival (Sep 20)
Sidewalk art takeover at Backesto Park.

San Mateo — Singapore Festival (Sep 21)
Cultural food, music, and performances in Central Park.

Santa Clara — Santa Clara Art & Wine Festival (Sep 13–14)
Central Park tradition with local artists and wineries.

Sonoma — Valley of the Moon Vintage Festival (Sep 26–28)
Wine country parade, grape stomp, and live music.

Woodside — Kings Mountain Art Fair (Aug 30–Sep 1)
Redwood-ridge fine arts show on Skyline Blvd.